Getting ready for a working winter

Goodness me, it has been a while since I’ve blogged, hasn’t it?  I said there might be longish gaps between musings, but I didn’t expect to go through virtually the entire flat season without writing.  The problem, as so often, is women.  Well, one woman.  I may not be out-manned, but by crikey I’m outgunned.  So, I’m sorry if the absence of my thoughts has bothered anyone, but it is for happy reasons.

Although this blog will have a strong flat racing bias, I’m likely to do more writing through the winter, simply because I have more time.  I try to get to the course as much as I can over the summer, and that is a time-consuming hobby.  There are just two meetings left for me this year – Newbury tomorrow, and Newmarket on the 2^nd November.  Over the winter, I’ll be digesting a long season’s work and preparing my mind and my notebook for 2014. 

Today’s blog is about what I plan to do with my off-season, and why I think you should do the same.

Record-keeping:

I keep assiduous records of my bets.  From what I can gather, most serious gamblers do this in some way.  It is all too easy to fool yourself into remembering only the wins if you don’t have a record.  I’ve learned some basic lessons and adapted my betting approach accordingly – for instance, I now bet almost exclusively on the flat (as I was breaking even over jumps and making about a significant profit on the flat), and bet with greater confidence and regularity at very long prices.  These are fairly easy things to pick up.  My winter analysis will be about going deeper.  For instance:

•         I know I’m at my best in big-field handicaps.  Does that mean I’m better at sprint – mile trips than I am at middle-distance and staying races, or are there just more sprint handicaps?
•         Do I have greater success at certain tracks?  It seems to me that I’ve been putting more and more emphasis on the draw this season, and having success with that approach.  Should I only be betting on courses with pronounced draw biases?
•         Since so much of my betting is based on paddock watching, is there any way I can quantify the impact of this, as against traditional form study?  Is there, for instance, a minimum number of horses in a race I need to have seen before I should be betting?
•         Is there any reason for me to move away from my current staking approach of level stakes on all bets?  Do I actually have greater success with “confidence” bets?

Record-developing:

I’ve also got a pile of Racing Posts, with detailed notes, going back to the beginning of April.  I need to go through them and turn all of the notes into data entry sheets for a friend who is going to help me start developing my own bespoke database.  I aim to be able to turn up at the races next year, not with a crumpled up Post, but with my own sheets, containing records on the horses from previous reviews, plus spaces for me to get my thoughts down in a more orderly way. The project is exciting, the data-entry is not. 

I know I said that you should be doing what I’m doing this off-season, but please don’t do this.  I need my edge.

Learning:

Last winter, I set myself a project of learning more about how horses work.  Given how much time I spend staring at them, it was remarkable just how little I knew.  I’d been picking stuff up from asking friends who rode, friends who paddock-watch, and, in particular, one friend who lectures on equine anatomy (she’s sick of me, poor woman).  I then bought this book,  which I would urge you to buy, too.  The horse painting is a clever idea and really does make it easier to fit anatomy into practical paddock watching.  I don’t really care what the bones in a horse’s leg are called – but I now know what sort of shoulder-angle I want to see on a stayer, and why.  This winter I’m going deeper into conformation studying, with this book.  I’m also trying to improve my understanding of betting theory, and at the recommendation of an economics professor, I’ll be going through this book.  

I know reading about racing and about horses can be rather dry, but it amazes me how many people think they have nothing to learn.  Punters are a smart lot.  If you want to win, and win consistently, you have to be willing to work hard to improve every aspect of your betting.  That means improving the “mechanics” of your betting as well as improving your knowledge of what you’re betting on.

Marketing:

(Yes, this section is a bit of a plug.  Come on, you can’t blame me for that, can you?)

For the last couple of years I’ve provided tips for someone.  It is, so far as I’m aware, a unique “tipping service”.  We’ve modelled it on the “no win, no fee” approach.  Every tip I give him is a nominal £10 single bet at a stated price with a specific bookmaker, win or each-way (I chose, based on price and the reason for the bet).  He can do whatever he wants with the picks – ignore them, back them at variable stakes, put them in lucky 15s – anything.  He pays me the balance of the nominal account – that is, he pays me for the profit on those bets.  No profit, no pay.

In the 2012 flat season I recommended 186 bets, for a profit of £666.25 (35.1%).  This year (to the 18^th October) I’ve recommended 212 bets, for a profit of £1,025.95 (44.6%).  There have been some big winners in there, most notably, in the last couple of months, Ancient Cross at 33/1 and Scatter Dice at 40/1 (although both my client and I ended up taking more at a larger price after she drifted from the ante-post position).  However, returns like these aren’t down to luck – they’re down to detailed knowledge of all of the horses in the race, a contrarian view of the market, and a long-term approach to taking profit.  I’ll have lots of losing days.  Some losing months.  My last losing season was 2006, when I had nine bets (none won).

Anyway, come 2014 I’m going to be making more of my tipping.  It may be arrogant, but I don't think there are many people out there who are better at this than I am.  I don’t know how I’ll be working my tipping next year – and it will depend in part on the views of my existing client – but I would like very much to have more customers.  If you’d like to be one of them, let me know, and I’ll keep you informed as I develop more detailed proposals.  Nothing will start until (approximately) the week of the Fred Darling and Craven trials at Newbury and Newmarket.

Eddie’s non-racing titbit:

This is a short but rather wonderful titbit.  This website is among the funniest things I’ve ever seen.  It is updated pretty regularly and always makes me laugh.  Have a look through.  You’re welcome.