A miscellany of thoughts

So, this blog comes with a health warning; I am deliberately setting myself against mainstream opinion.  For most races and most horses, I agree with the consensus, but if I acted on those opinions I’d produce a boring blog and would back a lot of favourites.  I’ve little doubt that in what follows, I’ll be wrong more than I’m right, but at the sort of prices I’m betting, that isn’t a problem.  With that caveat out there, today’s blog is a miscellany of horses I have opinions about following a busy period of early-season paddock watching.  Before that, though, an extension of my health warning, and a few thoughts on the big races coming up.

 

I’ve been meaning to blog again for a while.  Fortunately, the delay has saved me some embarrassment – I would certainly have advised backing Saskatchewan, who disappointed massively at Newbury over 10f having looked (to me) the best in both the paddock and the race over an inadequate 1m in the Wood Ditton.  Unless something was wrong at Newbury, he is simply not fast enough to win races against good horses.

On the other hand, Just the Judge (who I like enormously as a long-term prospect) was not a horse I could have backed at the Curragh – she was perhaps the most backward horse in the paddock at Newmarket, and I’m surprised she didn’t bounce.  She’s still a very scopey, under-muscled horse who should keep getting stronger as the summer goes along.  She might do better over 10f but I can see why they’ll stick to a mile, as the competition (Giofra? Elusive Kate? Dank?) among older fillies and mares doesn’t look much stiffer than among her Classic generation.  There’s little evidence on either side of her pedigree as to how she’ll cope with dirt, but she might well find a race in the Breeders Cup on one surface or the other.  One to relish.

Over the next two days, we have the Oaks and the Derby to look forward to, and first, a plea to those pontificating.  Please, don’t tell me how good or bad the race is before it has been run.  You simply don’t know.  You might not know for six months or a year after it, but you certainly don’t know in advance.  So let’s replace “a superb renewal of the Oaks” (ATR, of course) with “looks like it might be better than average”.  That’s all you can say at this stage, and I’m not even sure that’s right.  It looks a difficult race to call for me, and I’ve seen very few of the candidates.  I think Madame Defarge should come on much more for her first run than Talent, and for the longer trip.  She might well be too big at 25/1, but if it is to be a superb renewal, you’d want her well-beaten.  I’m most interested in the performance of Moth, who I love but I think this will be too much too soon (especially after a tough run in the Guineas).  I won’t be betting (beyond my ante-post losers).

The Derby, however, does look a one-horse race, and the question for us all is: can Dawn Approach stay?  My guess is he probably can’t, not quite, but that it won’t matter.  If he’s a 10f horse, ridden sensibly and is streets ahead of his opposition on class, then he’ll get home.  Battle of Marengo and Chopin look the most likely to give him trouble, and I’d love to see the latter do well, just because I think it would be good for German racing to have another superstar.  I really must get myself over there one day soon.  The Dash is much more my sort of betting heat, but unfortunately the two I think are most likely to win (Duke of Firenze (looked superb and York, will enjoy softer ground), and Captain Dunne) are well-drawn and defensively priced.

(This next bit is really good.  I go from talking about upcoming races to talking about horses I like, and you can hardly see the join.  Honestly, I amaze me sometimes…)

The last race I want to talk about is at Sandown tonight, and contains the first horse I want to talk about, Model Pupil, who goes in the Henry II at 7.15.  I will be leaving work nice and early to head for Esher, and this likeable sort is a big reason why.  He’s up against it – Cavalryman shoudl be fit from Dubai, likes Sandown and has gone from Arc hopeful to top-class stayer.  He’s giving weight to most of these, but is respected and could easily be good enough to do it.  Colour Vision has gone well fresh, is clearly top-class at his best but needs to bounce back after last season, and may see the ground going against him.  I’d look to oppose High Jinx and Times Up (latter carrying top weight) as both have tended to come on for their first runs, but both are good enough that they have to be respected.  Sir Graham Wade looked group class in handicaps last season, and even old Askar Tau has placed in some top races recently.  So this is very definitely a race to watch.  The stayers’ division looks wide open again this season (especially with Opinion Poll banned) and, other than Rite of Passage, Saddlers Rock and the Ballydoyle Cup horse (I hope it’ll be Chamonix, but I doubt it) all the likeliest contenders will be in Esher this evening.

So, why do I like Model Pupil?  First, he’s clearly a good horse on what he’s done already, despite some problems.  His maiden win over Shantaram et al was rock-solid, and was followed by a very close second in the Chester Vase over an extended 1m4f (staying on and arguably unlucky not to win that day).  He wasn’t seen out until late that season when he won poorly, and this year he’s returned to win a conditions race and finish fourth in the John Porter despite tiring badly down the straight.  He still hasn’t gone further than he did in the Chester Vase, a full year ago, despite that being the best performance of his life.

Now, let’s add the paddock watching.  He was clearly underdone at Newbury (so too was Noble Mission, but less so) and was far less powerful than the horses who beat him.  He looks like a stayer, lean and well-made but not over-muscled.  His power to weight ratio is very high.  So I think he’ll come on for the run, and I think he’ll come on enormously for the step up in trip.  He moved to post as well as any I’ve seen this year, apart from Hot Snap.

His pedigree also gives encouragement that he’ll be good, and will enjoy longer trips.  Modesta, his mare, won a 14f listed race at Yarmouth, and there is both class (Youmzain) and stamina (Anak, and other hurdlers) on the Sinndar/Saddler’s Wells cross.  Going back further, Zafonic is another grandson of Mofida, who is Noble Mission’s granddam.  Juddmonte have clearly bred stamina into a very classy damline.  Moreover, Sinndar’s best offspring give hope that Model Pupil will continue to improve as he ages (as Youmzain and Shareta did), hope that is increased by paddock inspection.

I got 14/1 from Bet365, and he’s down to 8s now, but he’s still potentially worth looking at down at that price.  I see Cavalryman as the main opposition but softer ground will help my selection and if he’s as good as I think, he should be right in the mix.  He’s 33/1 for the Ascot Gold Cup, but I’d avoid backing him there as I do think he’ll want cut in the ground, which he’s unlikely to get, and because he’s far from certain to line up.

Some quick hit thoughts on some other horses I like:

Dutch Masterpiece impressed me on his seasonal debut at Newmarket, finishing behind Shahdaroba.  Far from fit that day, he didn’t enjoy the longer trip, and he was then unsuited by softer ground at York.  He is well-handicapped off 90 and can make a noise over the minimum trip.  He’s missing the Dash, which is a shame, but I don’t know if he’s being rested or if there’s a problem.  Assuming he’s sound, he’s the sort to watch in races like the Stewards Cup and the Ayr Gold Cup.  Might prove listed or group class in time.

Lady Lydia has impressed me as a prospect more than any other juvenile I’ve seen so far.  As you’d expect, the bulk of those who’ve been out so far have been lacking in scope and very forward.  She wasn’t far behind Justice Day at Newmarket and has far more to come.  On pedigree she’s unlikely to see out a mile but I could see her going well in soft ground races over 6-7f later this season.  Something like the Rockfel could well be a long-term target.

From my trip to York last weekend, I was particularly impressed with Bite of the Cherry.  Unfortunate, in a way, that she picked up black type because I assume she’ll be retired over the winter, and she’d have made a cracking 5yo.  Still, granted firm ground she’ll stay as far as you like and she’s good enough to contest top races this year.  Keep an eye on her.  In the juvenile race, I was looking forward to seeing Ben’s Boy (impressed me on debut in the Lady Lydia race, when green as baize in the paddock), and was absolutely gutted to watch him break down.  Hate to see that, and RIP.  Of the rest, Roman Legend was a scopey type but was very coltish indeed (read: five-legged) and he’ll leave this form far behind next time out.  Sir Jack Layden will be a nice 3yo. 

The best maiden I’ve seen for some time was won by Riposte at Newmarket on the 17^th May.  She’s in the Ribblesdale and I wouldn’t put you off backing her if she ran.  Some of those she beat were very smart animals, though, and there are plenty there who’ll be winning races.  I’d expect to see some value from those who were unplaced when they face more typical maiden opposition.  Nellie Forbrush has an entry at Yarmouth next week and I would cheerfully back her against any of the opposition if she goes.  Meanwhile, Elhathrah was very green and wasn’t fit.  She’ll win her share of races over 10-14f in time.

From the Guineas meeting, just a couple of thoughts.  First, remember my thoughts on Garswood from before the 2,000.  He’s still a stonking bet over 7f if connections swerve the St James’ and put him into the Jersey, as they should.  Second, Dank seemed to me to be struggling with the trip when winning the Dahlia.  She wasn’t cherry-ripe and she beat some good ones, but I’d be far happier with her dropping back to a mile than stepping up in trip.  Could be a force in the filly and mare’s races over a bare mile (Matron, Sun Chariot, etc).  I assume she’s Ascot bound but not sure that firm ground will suit.

Eddie's non-racing titbit:

If you're wondering why I'm not talking about paddock inspection from Lockinge day, it is because I wasn't there.  If you're wondering why not, it is because I was preparing for a Eurovision Party.  If you're wondering what I thought, I was disappointed.  If you're wondering why, it is because the acts were (mostly) just bad, not mad and bad.  If you're wondering what three videos I'd recommend as showing what Eurovision should look like in the 21st century, you're in luck: