Life (the stupid thing) has been rather taking my attention
away from blogging for a couple of weeks.
I have a few things I’d like to write this week, and I’ll do my best to
get out some thoughts on some of the horses I’ve seen recently in due
course. This blog is different,
though. I’m writing about the Guineas
horses (fillies and colts) of this season, and about how I expect them to
develop, but I’m doing it in a different way.
I’m going to talk about the key form horse for understanding the 2013
2,000 and 1,000 Guineas.
Fencing.
Yeah, the four year old, Fencing. That one.
Fencing is a very smart horse, with a very instructive form
line. My interest in him dates back to
Newbury, and to August 2011. I was there
to watch Excelebration (he won the Hungerford in some style, back over the same
course and distance where he had run so well against Frankel in the Greenham – yet
I digress) when he broke his maiden winning the Washington Singer comfortably
despite still being green and having some serious growing to do. I marked him down as one to watch. He ran with credit behind Camelot in the RP
Trophy at Doncaster, and was put away for the winter. Apparently, his winter didn’t go well.
A rushed preparation (Gosden’s description, not mine) saw
him arrive at Newmarket still looking underdone. He finished 6th, a good
performance under the circumstances as he was going poorly from at least a
furlong out. The rest of his 3yo season
was underwhelming (3rd of 7 in the Dante his best result from three
more runs). This year, he came back and
won comfortably at Ascot in a listed race, and his sights will presumably be
raised to group level (he might even be one for the Queen Anne, a race that
looks distinctly winnable at this stage).
On his reappearance this year, I’d backed him with real confidence at
some pleasing prices. I say this not to
boast, but because Fencing represents a very useful betting angle, and one that
is frequently overlooked:
Many horses can take
a year to recover from a run in the Guineas.
There are lots of beaten horses every year who have below-par 3yo campaigns
and show their true ability only later in their career.
Why do I say this?
Well, I’ve hinted at my answer to this before, but I’ll lay it out in
full now.
· Newmarket is a tough track. Richard Hughes’ column in the Racing Post on
2,000 Guineas day pointed out how rucked and rutted the track has become. It is also (if you haven’t been) very
undulating, with a tough uphill furlong to finish. Also, it is extremely exposed, and despite
the best efforts of the clerk of the course and his staff, grass coverage is
often limited in the spring. This year,
after a long winter and a dry spring, it was particularly sparse. For the 2,000, this was complicated still
further by a very strong squall in the 15 minutes before the start, leaving
standing water on the course.
·
There’s only one chance at the Guineas. Yes, I know there are alternative Guineas at Longchamp and at the Curragh. Still, the willingness of top trainers from
Ireland and France (Head, Dezangles, Oxx, O’Brien, etc) to send their best to
Newmarket tells you something about the prestige of the race. With one or two notorious exceptions, I don’t
believe that good trainers would ever risk the well-being of their horses, but
I do think horses are rushed back for the Guineas in a way that they wouldn’t
be for any other race on the calendar.
·
It is a tough race. Some of the horses in the field are still 2
(based on foaling date rather than equine birthdays) and most are 24-26 months
old. This is often talked about as the
last two-year-old race of the season and there’s some truth to that. Some of the horses in the paddock do not look
like fully mature horses. It is also too
early in the season for many of them to have acquired full muscle mass and a
healthy summer coat. It is a big field
and there are enough green horses that there is plenty of barging.
·
The trials weren’t long ago. For the horses who ran in a trial (more this
year than previously, as far as I can remember), this is often the first time
they’ve been asked to back up a performance so quickly. The “bounce” is an ill-defined term and often
an excuse. However, I don’t think I’m after-timing
to suggest that Hot Snap’s poor run could be anticipated – I raised it as a
possibility in my 1,000 preview. I didn’t
predict the same for Toronado, and I wonder now if that was a mistake.
·
Stamina is stretched. There are winners of the race like Camelot
and Blue Bunting for whom a mile, even at this stage of their development, is
straightforward. However, there is a
long list of very, very good true milers (Canford Cliffs, Excelebration, Moonlight
Cloud, etc) who apparently failed to stay the trip at Newmarket. To me, this is part timing, part field size
and part course characteristics, but it can’t be ignored. One interesting horse to consider here is
Dream Ahead, who was aimed at the Guineas, wasn’t ready, and tried a mile
unsuccessfully in the St James’, before dropping in trip to win two group
ones. I can’t help but think he wouldn’t
have been as successful if he’d been pushed into what proved a savage Guineas
when undercooked.
·
There are lots of very good horses in the race. This is obvious, but the impact can’t be
ignored. Many of these horses will have
been comparatively untested in trials or as juveniles. I don’t necessarily believe in the psychology
of beaten horses being affected, but I do believe that a horse who is fully
stretched, or taken through the pain barrier for the first time in his or her
career may not respond predictably.
So, we have a race which trainers feel under unusual
pressure to put their best horses into.
It comes early in the season, on a stiff track over a distance for which
many are not ready. They may get jarred up
on a poor surface, or bumped by a large field.
They’ll gallop fast and will exert themselves as never before. For many of them, it will take months to
recover to their full ability.
Look at Fencing, and you’ll see a horse for whom the Guineas
was, in retrospect, a mistake. I don’t
blame Gosden in the slightest, he just happens to train the most topical
example of a broader trend. There are
plenty of others. I suppose the best
example still in training is St Nicholas Abbey, unraced as a 3yo after a rushed
and unsuccessful Guineas bid, but winner of four group ones since.
What do we do with this information? We store it, and consider Guineas form in
this context. My reading is that the
impact will be particularly pronounced this year, because the winter made the
ground worse and the development of the horses slower. I’d therefore expect several horses from
these Guineas to underperform this year, and would be (other factors
notwithstanding) looking to oppose them for the next few months, and begin
backing them in earnest next season. I’d
also be unsurprised if several of these horses aren’t seen again for several months. In fact, I’d treat it as a positive if that
were the case.
Which horses from this year would I expect to be
particularly prone to this trend? Well,
based on paddock watching, form review and pedigree, the following is a list of
horses who I consider to have at least a couple of the following
characteristics: doubtful stayers, underdeveloped, unsuited by firm ground,
green and inexperienced, emptied by two straight races.
2,000 Guineas: Glory
Awaits, Toronado, Mars, Correspondent, Moohaajim.
1,000 Guineas: Just
the Judge, Moth, Winning Express, Maureen, Hot Snap, Agent Allison, Ollie Olga,
Raasmeeya.
This is a list that includes some of the most
highly-regarded 3yos in Europe. There is
every chance that at least some of them will win some very big prizes, possibly
very soon. They’ll do it at short
prices, though, for the most part, and I’d want to see them with my own eyes
before I took their well-being for granted.
Eddie’s non-racing
titbit:
Looking for an unhealthy dinner? This is a good racing day meal that can be
half-prepared before you go out and is just delicious after a cold day at the
races.
Eddies’ roast potatoes with chorizo
Ingredients:
1.5 lbs potatoes – maris pipers are good for this
6-10 oz chorizo
Lard (or other fat if you prefer)
3-4 cloves garlic
2 red onions
1 lemon
Salt, pepper, paprika
Sour cream or mayo
Method:
-
Peel potatoes, cut into chunks of about 1inch
thickness, and parboil (into pan, cover with salted cold water and cook for
about ten minutes). Drain, and shake
slightly to roughen up edges.
-
Chop chorizo into chunks, and fry for about four to
five minutes until slightly crispy around the edges, and oil released. Pour oil into baking tray, retain chorizo in
bowl.
-
Heat lard in frying pan you’ve used for chorizo. When liquid, add rough chopped onions and
garlic. Cook until soft. Add lard to baking tray with chorizo oil, and
onions and garlic to bowl with chorizo.
-
(This is the point to stop if you’re going out for the
day). Bring oven to maximum temperature
and add the baking tray. You want it as
hot as you can get it. Then (carefully)
add the potatoes, shaking and turning to ensure all surfaces are covered in
oil. Place in oven for five minutes.
-
Turn oven down (to about 180 or so) and remove
tray. Add chorizo, onions and garlic,
halve the lemon and squeeze it slightly over the tray, then add it to the
mix. Add a generous pinch of paprika,
some salt and pepper, and mix thoroughly.
Return to the oven.
-
When everything looks crispy and fully cooked, taste
and season, then serve. I find sour
cream or mayo work nicely with this dish.
It isn’t exactly healthy even if you don’t, so go crazy. It is nice with salad leaves, too.
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