Inconclusive thoughts on the 1,000 Guineas

So, my review of the 1,000 Guineas has taken a little longer to prepare than I expected.  Blame my second cold of the last six weeks.  Thinking positively, the delay has served to allow the entries to be slimmed, first by scandal (Certify a non-runner, and also Great Timing, a filly for whom I entertained high hopes, particularly for the Oaks – with Lovely Pass a less significant removal) and then by another declaration round.  So, unlike the 2,000 preview, I won’t be wasting time assessing horses whose connections have no intention of running them.  Even with a smaller field (18 remain entered) this looks a very, very tough race to crack.  Let’s see what we can do to narrow the field.

As with the 2,000, I’ll look at the favourite, the other trials horses I’ve seen, and the rest of the field.  I’m aiming to find a conclusion, but I have to be honest and say that this is not a race I have any confidence in predicting.  The favourite here is Hot Snap at 11/4, with the rest (best prices at time of writing) as follows: Just the Judge 5/1, What a Name 11/2, Moth 10/1, Sky Lantern 12/1, Big Break 12/1, Maureen 14/1, Winning Express 20/1.  You can have 25s or bigger on the remainder.

Hot Snap:

When I saw Hot Snap in the pre-parade, I was impressed.  Lovely frame (still some muscle growth to come) and a nice comfortable walker.  Like many Cecil horses, she was in a midsummer coat (pun very much intended, I’m afraid).  In fact, a few of us were speculating whether the Warren Place stables have UV lighting.  I was already thinking about her as a 10f horse later in the season, perhaps following her half-sister to Nassau glory.  When I watched her go to post, I was even more impressed – she moved incredibly smoothly, as well to post as any horse I can remember.  My notes took on a more fevered pitch as I began confidently predicting group one glory for her. 

I did wonder if she might be a middle-distance sort with enough class to win a Guineas with a prolonged spurt from the back (think Blue Bunting or Sea The Stars).  Yet I didn’t back her in the Nell Gwynne, nor did I snap up the prices for the Guineas.  This was foolish, as I’d seen a lot of potential in a long-priced horse.  I’ve still got a lot to learn about trusting my instincts in this game. 

At the current 11/4, though, I don’t see value.  Why might she win?  She’s already demonstrated enough speed to beat a very fair yardstick in Sky Lantern.  On pedigree and on paddock watching, she looks to have the stamina for this tough mile, and further.  Don’t be fooled by her sire being regarded as a “sprinter type” (Midday was by Oasis Dream, even more of a speed influence than Pivotal – the stamina influences on the mare’s side clearly dominate). 

Why might she be beaten?  Well, she’s inexperienced.  Not only has she only had two runs, she’s never experienced a big crowd.  She’s also coming back 16 days after her previous run.  I don’t believe in the “bounce” but I do think that some unfurnished horses struggle to take much racing.  The surface at HQ isn’t as lush as usual after a tough winter and she’s big enough and lacks mature muscle development.  I wouldn’t be surprised if that race took a lot out of her (indeed, I wouldn’t be hugely surprised if we don’t see her until Royal Ascot.  That might be the best thing of all for her development).  She’s also likely to be dependent on finding a gap through an even larger (and stronger) field than she faced in the Nell Gwynne, and there’s no guarantee she’ll be fortunate.

I can’t form a strong view.  She’s got all the attributes to win, and if any filly wins by a distance, it’ll be her.  But at 11/4 I wouldn’t back her.

The trials horses:

There’s some suggestion that Sky Lantern might improve relative to Hot Snap.  Well, she might.  Certainly the drying ground will suit her – and I can’t see it being as windy on Sunday as it was a fortnight ago when she was exposed to the worst of the crosswind.  On the other hand, she was fit enough on reappearance, and whilst a mile will be fine for her, the longer trip is to the favourite’s advantage.  She’s a nice sort physically and will be a decent miler but my assessment is that she’s been outdone by classy horses on the last couple of attempts, and I’d be disappointed if she proved good enough to win this.

My pick all winter has been Maureen, who I thought was priced on her final run of the season (a below par run in the Cheveley Park) rather than on her hugely impressive performances before that.  She’s wintered nicely, and looks strong enough, though she’s still small.  She’ll come into her coat but there isn’t much improvement in her fitness, I’d say.  Is she good enough to win?  I’m very biased, but I think she could be - or I thought I did, before I listened to Hughes and Hannon. 

My concerns with her really do all revolve around connections – they’re saying the wrong things, in my eyes.  I’m unconvinced that she needs soft ground, as they’ve implied (she handles it, but I can’t see that she needs it on paddock watching or on form – she was very impressive in the Princess Margaret on firm).  They are convinced that “exaggerated holding tactics” will be needed for her to see out a mile; she’ll either stay or she won’t, and they need to put her in a position to win.  I don't like the idea of exagerrated holding tactics in a big field.  Finally, there seems to be some doubt about whether she’s better than Sky Lantern; this last is not a criticism of Hannon or Hughes (they’re qualified to judge) but I’d rather there was no doubt.  Ultimately, it wasn’t a great trial she won and on the basis of their comments, I’m playing for place money at best.

Just The Judge didn’t formally run a trial, but she did turn up at Newmarket on Nell Gwynne day.  Her gallop was uninformative but she demonstrated her well-being and gave us a chance to have a look at her in the paddock.  She’s fine, has wintered as you’d expect, nothing exceptional either positive or negative.  Whilst her Rockfel looks decent 2yo form, I’d say she’ll have to improve significantly to feature in this, and I've thought for a while that she's a false price.  I thought she was cherry-ripe for the Rockfel and that might be a career-best.

Finally, What A Name took the Imprudence over in France.  I wasn’t there and I haven’t seen her in the flesh but I thought it was a strong performance, and, coupled with her 2yo form, gives her arguably the best form of any of these.  She’ll be stepping up to a mile for the first time but there’s nothing in her pedigree or the videos to suggest a problem there.  Part of the difficulty of the classics is weaving form together, but I think there’s a shade of value at 11/2 here.

The other horses:

I don’t have much to add to received wisdom here.  The only ones I have detailed notes on are not high in the market (Winning Express, who won’t stay, Agent Allison, who isn’t good enough to beat Maureen and looks below the necessary class, and Ollie Olga, who is a 2yo type and I’d be amazed if she’s trained on… but I haven’t seen her since August).  Moth won impressively but beat trees in a maiden on heavy ground and probably wants further on deeper; I’d oppose her at 10s happily.

Magical Dream and Snow Queen both look thoroughly exposed as outclassed – but we said that about Homecoming Queen last year; they’ll be worth checking in the paddock.  Big Break and Rasmeeya are both bred to go very well, and are unknowns.  If they turn up and are in good condition (apparently Weld has struggled to get his string right after a long winter) then they can’t be discounted, especially Big Break who has rock-solid 2yo form, including a great run against the colts in the Killavullin). 

Conclusions:

So, where does that leave us?  Not much further forwards, to be honest (I don’t plan to write many blogs that are this inconclusive).  I think I secured good value at 33s with Maureen and I’ll be screaming for her, but she shouldn’t be good enough to win this.  I tend to expect surprises in this race but on everything we know so far this should be between What a Name and Hot Snap (if she runs) with the former representing better value at current prices.

Eddie's non-racing titbit:

I've loved Bill Simmons for years, and recently he's gone from writing very funny and informative columns on American sport for espn.com to running his own website (part of ESPN), and also setting up 30 for 30, a series of sports documentaries (the original series being 30 episodes, to coincide with ESPN's 30th anniversary).  These are well, well worth looking out for.  If you have ESPN America as part of your TV package, they're on at funny times, but a series record is well worth doing.  If not, you can buy them on import DVD fairly cheaply for around 50 hours of entertainment.  If you like documentaries, or US sport, or learning about sports stories you didn't know about, these are really, really good and definitely get the Edredon Browny seal of approval.