Thoughts on the 2,000 Guineas

The trials are done, the betting markets are pretty mature, and we’re just a few days away from the first two classics of the season.  For me, Guineas weekend is one of the highlights of the season – the “final exam” for my work on the 2yos that takes up so much of each summer, and a weekend that throws up plenty of clues for the seasons ahead.  The Guineas are the best trials around for the Derby and Oaks, and there are plenty of pointers for later races. 

I’m particularly proud of my notes by Rip Van Winkle’s name back in 2009: “miler, needs to grow, compact, pwful. Cld be Gdwd type”.  Backing him at 6/4 in the Sussex was hardly rocket science, but avoiding him in three runs before then (and against Sea The Stars) was valuable indeed.  Nuggets like that get me to Newmarket with my notebook set to stun.  Anyway, with my excitement well established, let’s look at the field for the 2,000.  The 1,000 will follow as soon as I can get around to it.

Key players (best prices): Dawn Approach (6/4), Toronado (4/1), Mars (9/1), Christoforo Colombo (10/1), George Vancouver (20/1), Olympic Glory (20/1), Style Vendome (20/1), Garswood (25/1), Moohaajim (25/1), Van der Neer (25/1), 33/1 bar.

Before we look at the players, a few thoughts on the market.  It begins and ends with Dawn Approach, ultimately.  You’re entering a market that considers him to win 40 of every 100 (theoretical) runnings of this race, and you must plan accordingly.  I’d say you can’t bet intelligently on this race without first having a view on Dawn Approach, one way or the other.  I’d also say that the correct view is that he’s far too short in the market.

Looking beyond the favourite, I’d happily draw a line through Olympic Glory as he’ll only run if Toronado can’t go for any reason.  I’d also say that you’ve got to have a reason to get interested in a specific horse at 33/1 or bigger.  I certainly don’t have the time or the knowledge to review all 72 entries in any detail.  So, I've pulled the market into a few groups – Dawn Approach, the trials runners, the O’Brien horses, and the rest, and looked at the market leaders and a few noteworth outsiders.  Let’s get into it.

Dawn Approach:

Anyone who watched any 2yo racing last season knows about Dawn Approach.  He dotted up in a Curragh maiden on the 25^th March (yes, March) and was unbeaten in six starts, culminating in twin Group One wins over 7f, the National and Dewhurst.  He was, deservedly and resoundingly, the champion juvenile of 2012.  All indications are that a mile will suit him, that he’ll cope with the likely firmish ground, and his trainer knows how to win classics in the UK and Ireland.  Yet I’m very happy to take him on, and I’d place lay him if I did that sort of thing.  Why?

Well, for a start, let’s look at Jim Bolger.  Dawn Approach was his fifth winner of the Dewhurst, arguably the best yardstick for 2,000 Guineas success.  None of the previous four won the Guineas.  Teofilo, Parish Hall and Intense Focus didn’t make it to the course.  We hear that Dawn Approach is growing and has had an optimal preparation, but you’ll forgive me if I don’t take Jim Bolger’s word for it.  So, concern one is that he might not turn up, or be ready to give his best if he does.

Second, the manner of his win at Newmarket concerns me.  I saw a horse taking on a small field (six went to post) in a below average renewal (Ashdan, 9/2 second favourite that day was far from well, very green, and stepping up from a conditions race at Doncaster).  He beat stablemate Leitir Mor by less than three lengths, having been nine ahead of him at the Curragh in the National.  Visually, he didn’t seem to enjoy the dip and ran significantly below his best on the day.  Which brings me onto my third, and biggest, reason to oppose the horse – paddock watching.

Horses who do well at Newmarket tend to be small, well balanced types.  The course is straight so there is an assumption that a winner can be a big-boned galloping sort, but the undulations and the big field tend to make this a race for the nimbler horses.  With the exception of Sea The Stars, who won a weakish renewal on pure class, there hasn’t been a really big winner of the race in the time I’ve been going – which is every year since Cockney Rebel’s win in 2007. 

Dawn Approach, meanwhile, is a huge great thing.  He’s undoubtedly powerful, well-made, an effective galloper, all those things, but if you believe in horses for courses then he should be kept back for the Irish Guineas.  He won’t like Newmarket, and I think a quicker pace and bigger field than the Dewhurst will make it impossible for him to lose momentum into the dip, and still win (as he did in October). 

I’d also say that he was so effective at two because he was just about the most precocious horse I’ve ever seen.  He looked like a 3yo, and a well-developed one at that.  Remember the kid from your under-12 football team who was the captain and the star because he was 6ft2?  Once everyone else was full-grown, he wasn’t the best, was he?  I wouldn’t be at all surprised if that was Dawn Approach.

He might win.  He’s a classy horse, strong as an ox and will stay a mile.  His 2yo form is good enough to win some weak Guineas.  At 6/4, though, I think there are plenty of good reason to oppose him.

The trials:

I didn’t get over to France, sadly, so my thoughts on Style Vendome are limited (he won a typically muddling French race which doesn’t tell us much about his staying power or about his ability in a big field, and I can’t comment on his well-being.  On the other hand, he’s won a traditionally good race well and he’s got canny connections and a pedigree to suit the race.  If he turns up and looks right I wouldn’t rule him out.  I’d say 20/1 is about right).  On the other hand, I was at Newmarket for both days of the Craven, and at Newbury for the Darling/Greenham day.  So I have some paddock observations on the contenders from those races.

Toronado was the paddock pick ahead of the Craven.  He wasn’t particularly forward in his coat but was stronger than last year.  He’s not appreciably taller than he was when I last saw him (winning the Champagne at Doncaster) but has filled out , with a much better defined chest and a longer girth.  He’s a lovely specimen and is very much an early 3yo and a Newmarket type.  He showed in winning the race well that he handled the dip and that he stays a mile (on pedigree and paddock watching, this wasn’t a surprise). 

Fans of any horse in any trial, regardless of outcome, will say without evidence “he’ll come on for the run”.  I’d say that Toronado was as forward as any 3yo at this stage of the season after a long winter.  He’ll improve slightly, and can certainly come better into his coat, but he was fit enough and that was probably his form.  He’ll take on better opponents but it’ll take a very good one to beat him.

Dundonnell warrants a mention only because he was my pick over the winter for the Guineas.  He’s got taller, and is a very powerful sort.  Not particularly well in his coat, he was carrying condition.  He’s also still requiring two handlers, and was ponied to the start early.  Not a great sign.  I also noticed a scab on his leg, and a friend suggested he may have had a splint over the winter.  He remains a beautiful frame and a wonderful galloper, and I can see him, granted proper rest, making a real impact late this year or in 2014 as a miler, but I’d be shocked if he featured in the Guineas.

Garswood, winning the free handicap on Wednesday, was another who impressed greatly.  He’s one who will genuinely come on for the run; he was puffing noticeably afterwards and carrying some condition.  He won a fair renewal like a good horse and I can see him taking high order over the season.  The question with him is trip.  I think that 7f will be his limit and I’d oppose him over the stiff mile of the Guineas confidently.  From a punting perspective, the ideal outcome would be a crushing defeat on the 5^th May, and a decent price for the Jersey at Royal Ascot – a race that should suit him perfectly.  If I’m right, he’s more likely to make some noise in the top 6f races than over a mile, but he might be the unluckiest of all; a 7f specialist.  Still, if he can go well in the Jersey and the Foret, that’s a good season.

Moving onto Saturday, the Greenham was a less informative trial, simply because the winner Olympic Glory is unlikely to turn up at HQ on the 4th.  He seemed to struggle to get himself going (not a great trait in a potential Newmarket horse) but once in top gear he ran on well to grab the win with some ease.  He looked like a stayer to me but there’s nothing in his pedigree to support that notion, so I’ve shelved my belief that he might be a French Derby horse and concluded he’s probably a very good miler, rather than an excellent one.  We shall see. 

In behind him, Moohaajim is another getting the “he’ll come on for the run” spin from his supporters and connections.  He might, but I saw no evidence to support it.  He’s a big, bullish horse and I imagine he takes some getting fit, but he wasn’t carrying much condition. He was blowing afterwards, but not for too long - to me, more a sign of a trip that pushed him than a lack of fitness.  I was dubious after the Middle Park about his ability to stay and he confirmed it, in my eyes, by failing to get past Sir Patrick Moore (useful yardstick, well below group one class on everything we've seen so far) on the line.  Connections are adamant he wants quick ground but again, I’d be doubtful, and I think he might struggle to go on anything firmer than he saw on Saturday.  He’s another who won’t like Newmarket, and I’ll cheerfully oppose him in the 2,000.  Unless something changes dramatically, I can’t see me backing him at all this year.

The O’Brien horses:

Now we move into the area of speculation.  As ever, Ballydoyle have entered everything except the stable cat.  I can only assume the stable cat isn’t three, or he’d be in it, too (sample quote "he's pleased us at home, Andrew, he's a real nice horse... I mean, cat.").  Some of their entries have seen a race course this year, but very few have raced.  As ever, the bulk of his entries look like 10-12f horses on pedigree and their two year old campaigns, but it wouldn’t be any kind of surprise if something showed up that was fit enough, and classy enough, to win over a mile.

Which one?  Stuffed if I know – and I won’t believe much of what I read between now and then.  Playing “guess the Ballydoyle star” is one of the things that got me into paddock watching in the first place.  You’ll find me skipping the Jockey Club to get an early look at them in the pre-parade, and then trying to get a bet on if anything looks good.  Alfonso de Sousa shouldn’t be forgotten, though – he looks the most like a miler on pedigree and it was two very precocious horses who beat him in a good Acomb at York last August.  He might be saved for the Curragh if they think he likes softer ground, but he's certainly one to keep an eye on whenever he does turn up.  

The money, and the vibes, appear to be for Mars and Christoforo Colombo, and there isn’t much you can say against either of them.  I’d have a preference for the latter, who is better suited by the trip on pedigree, and has more experience of racing and travelling (including a very good performance at Royal Ascot in front of a huge crowd -it was Frankel’s Queen Anne that same day ).

The rest:

There are plenty left in the race who I haven’t talked about, and they’re all horses I haven’t seen run this year or am happy to discount.  Van Der Neer is next in the market – he flashed impressive speed at Lingfield but I’d be amazed if he has the cruising speed necessary to feature at HQ, and he seems to be well down the (formidable) Hannon pecking order.  Not much from Godolphin makes any appeal, and the Cecil pair look to be well below par.  Ghurair is the only Gosden horse and he definitely needs further.

A couple who do stand out on pedigree, from less fashionable yards, are Mooqtar and Mutin.  Being trained in Ireland and France, respectively, they are far from certain to show up, and both are inexperienced (though Mutin did run his third race earlier this season).  However, both look genuine milers, and are unbeaten.  They fall firmly into the “could be anything” category and will warrant close attention in the paddock if they turn up.   You could make the same case for Englishman, but he’s been off the course for so long (finishing down the field in the Coventry in June when last seen) that I assume there must have been difficulties in training.

Conclusions:

As ever, lots of strands to this race and the key form will become obvious only after the event.  My current feeling is that Toronado goes into this race as the horse with the best chance on form, pedigree and paddock inspection.  I expect him to win, but I wouldn’t rule out something from Ballydoyle beating him.  I never lay horses, but if I did, I’d be willing to place lay Dawn Approach.  If you're looking for some each-way value, waiting until the 5-day decs and looking to France and Ireland would be sensible.

Update:
I wrote this before the news broke about al Zarooni.  Happily (for me) that doesn't change my thoughts above, as his colts weren't likely to feature anyway.  It might cause some delay to my 1,000 Guineas preview, though.  I also might provide some thoughts about the whole issue of doping in racing at some point soon.

Eddie’s non-racing titbit:

If you’re looking for something interesting to read, may I humbly suggest this book?  It has an honesty and a rawness that is lacking from most of the rather sanitised books on betting I’ve come across so far.  Bits of it are about racing but it is really a book about sport, and gambling on sport.  The author is clearly a man who loves a punt, far more than I do, and talks very intelligently about what that means for him, and to him.  Well worth picking up.